* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 40 42 43 46 48 52 57 60 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 40 42 35 38 40 45 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 42 43 37 40 44 51 59 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 14 16 13 9 13 7 3 10 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 3 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 283 276 262 253 276 230 281 263 301 188 200 233 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 137 138 139 142 145 150 149 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 139 139 140 139 139 139 140 135 127 122 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 51 51 54 52 54 55 56 58 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 -12 -11 -11 -11 -5 -35 -48 -98 -71 -48 -32 200 MB DIV 2 8 -1 13 16 20 42 -12 19 19 31 18 18 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 5 0 1 5 3 1 LAND (KM) 649 545 416 333 358 305 100 -69 113 238 420 334 321 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 30 22 40 37 56 76 25 20 62 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 08/01/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED