* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 7 5 11 16 24 27 28 21 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 1 0 6 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 215 227 239 255 230 205 205 203 203 216 220 221 222 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 144 145 145 146 148 148 149 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 44 45 48 50 49 47 45 44 47 51 55 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 22 22 20 21 25 29 37 49 52 53 47 200 MB DIV -18 -16 -1 -4 -17 -3 -9 -14 11 1 42 26 33 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 1314 1327 1344 1358 1376 1433 1509 1609 1735 1877 2050 2224 2419 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 166.3 166.9 167.4 168.0 168.5 169.7 171.1 172.5 174.1 175.8 177.8 179.8 181.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 28 30 34 48 51 44 52 55 41 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -19. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##