* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 28 31 35 38 41 41 42 43 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 28 31 35 38 41 41 42 43 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 22 24 27 29 31 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 2 2 7 6 7 7 7 3 0 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 119 122 129 135 55 104 99 119 142 178 179 238 78 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 139 139 140 140 140 141 144 147 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 68 69 69 65 62 59 60 60 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 19 13 17 26 30 23 23 21 18 14 7 200 MB DIV 30 23 22 12 9 8 13 21 21 33 55 45 42 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 815 782 754 724 705 701 763 904 1102 1249 1401 1575 1785 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 151.2 151.9 152.5 153.4 154.2 156.0 158.2 160.7 163.4 166.0 168.5 171.1 173.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 10 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 12 8 12 31 9 7 7 25 30 46 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 18. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##