* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 59 66 72 75 74 70 67 59 57 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 59 66 72 75 74 70 67 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 46 49 51 54 57 59 58 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 11 7 15 14 6 7 6 6 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 -2 2 0 8 SHEAR DIR 331 334 344 355 17 39 50 51 45 317 263 267 286 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 139 137 139 135 128 125 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 71 69 67 65 64 62 66 65 61 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 22 24 25 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 39 41 38 24 10 12 11 9 3 21 57 200 MB DIV 85 100 106 86 75 18 52 61 46 20 67 42 31 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 1 2 4 11 LAND (KM) 1762 1779 1800 1832 1868 1971 2074 2186 2272 2105 2014 1856 1638 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.2 15.7 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.2 124.9 125.7 126.5 128.2 129.8 131.7 133.6 135.2 136.2 137.7 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 9 6 4 5 16 9 1 2 5 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 13. 12. 13. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 31. 37. 40. 39. 35. 32. 24. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##