* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 32 37 41 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 32 37 41 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 20 22 24 26 29 31 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 23 21 19 17 13 6 4 6 7 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 73 79 79 78 78 81 80 76 157 191 223 225 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 144 144 140 132 134 136 136 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 64 61 53 48 44 45 44 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 50 39 31 28 29 36 45 48 43 47 34 34 24 200 MB DIV 69 71 47 29 24 4 0 -1 -19 -4 14 14 21 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 2151 2044 1938 1818 1698 1462 1201 946 698 508 461 583 745 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.6 138.6 139.8 140.9 143.2 145.8 148.6 151.5 154.3 157.1 159.8 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 10 10 14 18 11 4 5 4 19 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 22. 21. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##