* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 41 42 47 50 56 61 67 68 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 41 36 41 45 51 56 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 40 36 40 44 51 60 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 15 16 9 12 8 5 6 8 18 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 279 267 252 261 281 270 285 296 127 160 179 227 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 137 138 139 142 144 145 148 143 139 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 138 140 140 140 139 139 135 135 128 123 115 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 51 52 52 52 55 56 61 61 62 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -20 -25 -21 -19 -36 -65 -97 -85 -69 -51 -51 200 MB DIV 0 -2 12 24 32 31 8 24 17 45 43 27 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 0 3 0 7 0 8 9 1 -11 LAND (KM) 563 437 371 417 438 111 -10 122 310 508 507 474 276 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 17.0 18.9 20.9 23.2 25.6 28.1 30.7 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.9 59.5 61.2 62.9 66.1 69.2 71.8 73.7 74.8 75.1 74.8 74.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 13 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 28 25 34 58 65 31 42 64 27 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED