* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 40 42 43 42 42 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 40 42 43 42 42 42 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 30 32 33 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 4 2 3 4 5 4 7 13 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 -1 -5 -6 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 124 137 164 140 109 88 123 202 221 235 232 221 211 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 140 140 139 138 141 145 147 148 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 65 67 64 62 58 57 56 61 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 9 16 26 31 30 20 24 24 35 22 21 200 MB DIV 24 11 7 11 27 18 8 -6 4 26 51 32 39 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 801 752 714 675 655 681 802 979 1126 1326 1550 1785 2015 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.6 152.6 153.5 154.6 155.7 158.2 160.9 163.8 167.0 170.0 172.9 175.7 178.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 12 8 14 28 11 4 11 23 26 37 54 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. 17. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING