* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 69 74 76 77 74 68 60 54 45 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 69 74 76 77 74 68 60 54 45 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 62 63 64 64 63 62 59 54 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 15 11 12 14 7 4 3 4 9 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -6 -3 2 0 0 2 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 358 354 5 8 20 28 352 339 245 221 262 273 250 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 139 137 138 135 129 123 121 124 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 71 68 65 63 62 62 67 65 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 28 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 29 29 27 10 10 8 3 1 12 44 68 200 MB DIV 112 95 88 57 29 24 51 64 49 98 83 49 23 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -3 -1 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 5 3 8 3 LAND (KM) 1779 1807 1839 1879 1923 2005 2122 2258 2158 2022 1936 1749 1482 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.6 16.3 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.0 125.7 126.6 127.4 129.0 131.0 133.0 134.6 135.9 136.8 138.6 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 9 7 5 6 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 4 4 6 11 3 12 1 2 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 11. 9. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 24. 26. 27. 24. 18. 10. 4. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##