* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 40 42 44 49 54 59 64 69 71 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 40 41 44 48 53 59 64 68 71 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 45 50 57 66 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 20 19 8 14 10 6 6 8 13 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 1 -1 0 -5 -3 -3 0 -4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 273 268 253 263 283 259 297 286 310 186 182 222 235 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 138 141 144 144 146 143 143 133 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 139 138 140 140 136 132 127 129 123 114 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 11 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 50 51 50 53 56 59 61 63 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -26 -28 -24 -28 -38 -84 -78 -80 -40 -54 -29 16 200 MB DIV -4 15 24 13 0 17 20 36 35 55 21 48 65 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 0 4 -3 8 0 7 8 12 22 25 LAND (KM) 450 413 468 392 209 31 151 403 558 555 568 593 687 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.5 18.5 21.1 23.6 25.9 28.1 30.5 33.5 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.7 61.4 63.1 64.7 67.5 70.2 72.6 74.4 74.6 73.2 69.9 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 18 17 15 12 12 17 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 20 34 44 48 54 50 53 27 13 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 29. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)