* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 20 19 18 16 16 17 19 22 25 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 20 19 18 16 16 17 19 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 4 6 8 9 14 21 23 16 16 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 -3 2 -2 2 1 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 262 281 285 186 213 226 209 202 212 218 201 194 179 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 145 145 146 147 149 149 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 48 47 45 44 47 50 54 58 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 28 33 32 29 30 41 51 56 60 52 46 200 MB DIV 19 16 28 24 13 -6 -2 15 0 22 22 14 5 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 2 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1346 1369 1396 1426 1457 1536 1630 1753 1892 2045 2202 2394 2577 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 167.7 168.4 169.0 169.6 170.2 171.5 172.8 174.3 175.9 177.6 179.4 181.5 183.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 31 34 38 51 49 44 53 59 47 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##