* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 40 43 43 41 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 40 43 43 41 40 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 38 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 1 0 4 8 3 2 10 12 13 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 0 -5 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 132 204 250 53 71 76 122 165 225 235 233 231 220 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 140 140 139 140 144 146 147 149 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 65 66 67 61 58 55 56 58 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 16 26 29 35 22 23 20 20 21 6 8 200 MB DIV 9 0 28 31 28 14 -4 -7 15 24 30 -8 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 769 715 678 661 670 760 917 1049 1217 1415 1624 1837 2063 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 152.2 153.3 154.4 155.7 156.9 159.7 162.5 165.6 168.6 171.5 174.1 176.6 179.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 12 28 27 4 5 22 23 31 34 66 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 16. 15. 16. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING