* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 68 74 78 77 72 65 60 53 45 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 68 74 78 77 72 65 60 53 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 66 67 68 68 68 66 61 55 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 11 12 14 6 4 2 3 6 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 2 6 4 9 3 SHEAR DIR 356 2 357 1 21 37 24 270 322 238 263 215 203 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 138 138 136 130 125 121 122 122 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 66 63 62 58 58 60 61 61 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 24 25 24 27 29 29 28 27 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 19 16 6 12 12 10 2 0 20 49 74 200 MB DIV 75 52 40 26 22 43 77 73 55 102 44 18 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -6 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 4 4 11 10 LAND (KM) 1823 1860 1901 1951 1991 2089 2208 2202 2041 1892 1763 1604 1415 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.1 126.9 127.8 128.7 130.5 132.4 134.2 135.7 137.1 138.3 139.8 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 4 5 11 6 14 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 19. 23. 22. 17. 10. 5. -2. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##