* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 28 32 36 38 39 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 28 32 36 38 39 39 40 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 26 28 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 14 12 9 4 4 6 5 8 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 82 81 83 87 92 99 120 86 157 175 194 335 30 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 142 135 132 137 137 136 137 138 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 62 60 55 50 45 42 42 44 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 11 11 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 30 37 33 36 50 42 54 47 59 44 39 200 MB DIV 42 25 29 27 20 15 26 27 6 20 54 63 23 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2043 1921 1801 1684 1569 1301 1031 766 543 465 588 789 930 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.5 139.7 140.9 142.1 144.8 147.6 150.6 153.6 156.5 159.4 162.2 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 10 14 19 11 7 4 3 19 13 5 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##