* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 49 61 68 74 79 84 89 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 49 61 68 74 79 84 89 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 29 34 40 46 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 12 11 7 1 3 10 10 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 5 3 -1 2 0 -1 -4 -7 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 13 19 12 21 18 1 88 38 36 37 41 50 44 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 155 156 155 155 155 152 150 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 74 72 71 68 68 64 69 74 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 16 18 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 12 16 8 5 3 10 20 23 29 28 25 200 MB DIV 46 29 20 45 47 48 13 33 50 50 45 86 93 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 802 841 879 929 993 1060 1160 1328 1569 1813 2092 2297 2419 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.2 13.9 13.1 12.1 10.7 9.8 9.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.9 116.1 118.3 120.7 123.1 125.4 127.2 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 13 13 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 37 29 20 12 19 33 35 20 20 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 18. 21. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 29. 41. 48. 54. 59. 65. 69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##