* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 48 51 57 62 66 72 76 75 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 48 51 57 62 66 72 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 46 46 48 51 58 67 75 82 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 16 10 8 4 4 4 9 15 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 0 0 -5 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 266 256 267 281 291 289 339 320 123 237 221 228 232 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 138 139 142 143 147 145 141 134 128 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 138 138 140 137 136 131 127 120 115 105 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 50 52 56 56 60 61 67 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -23 -16 -26 -24 -55 -66 -75 -52 -57 -23 -2 32 200 MB DIV 3 21 16 3 11 14 37 30 41 31 61 55 44 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 0 2 5 -1 8 10 28 0 20 LAND (KM) 418 500 315 143 24 47 267 449 526 556 455 697 667 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.7 19.9 22.3 24.8 27.5 30.3 33.0 35.5 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.1 63.9 65.4 66.9 69.5 72.4 74.1 74.8 73.9 71.9 68.1 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 14 13 15 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 39 59 50 51 50 67 36 13 4 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 21 CX,CY: -18/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 848 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 27. 31. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED