* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 20 21 22 21 21 22 26 32 37 43 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 20 21 22 21 21 22 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 20 20 21 22 23 23 23 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 5 5 13 15 19 13 11 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 0 -5 -6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 285 334 177 203 187 186 190 192 203 158 138 136 94 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 146 146 147 149 149 150 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 49 50 49 48 47 47 47 50 54 58 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 29 26 22 28 39 55 67 70 74 69 65 200 MB DIV 15 29 20 21 6 -23 -10 0 -8 36 31 26 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1375 1403 1435 1476 1519 1620 1747 1889 2057 2229 2415 2590 2789 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.1 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.7 169.3 170.0 170.6 172.0 173.4 175.0 176.7 178.6 180.6 182.5 184.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 29 33 41 51 41 41 54 81 78 75 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##