* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 46 51 51 50 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 46 51 51 50 49 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 45 47 48 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 3 5 7 9 4 3 6 9 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 2 0 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 131 96 80 61 58 92 96 145 242 223 235 238 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 140 140 139 141 145 147 148 148 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 66 66 66 66 59 57 56 58 61 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 30 32 34 35 24 31 24 29 27 19 16 200 MB DIV -3 23 24 5 9 7 0 15 22 41 15 -9 7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 757 718 700 703 735 849 1030 1141 1312 1491 1692 1901 2134 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 152.9 154.1 155.3 156.7 158.0 160.7 163.6 166.6 169.5 172.2 174.7 177.2 179.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 26 30 16 9 12 17 26 37 35 51 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 26. 26. 25. 24. 26. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING