* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 61 65 69 68 67 61 55 50 43 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 61 65 69 68 67 61 55 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 59 60 61 62 63 61 57 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 14 13 7 3 2 1 6 4 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 -3 1 2 6 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 355 2 15 27 40 67 76 260 304 215 199 187 185 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 139 139 135 130 124 123 124 125 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 65 63 63 60 63 63 64 59 55 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 24 26 27 27 27 27 27 25 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 12 0 1 7 0 -3 -7 8 27 59 67 200 MB DIV 44 22 24 32 36 36 57 46 49 22 14 -3 4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -5 -4 0 -3 0 2 4 6 14 7 LAND (KM) 1849 1897 1946 1989 2035 2137 2256 2162 2014 1879 1757 1573 1322 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.8 127.6 128.5 129.4 131.1 132.9 134.6 136.0 137.3 138.5 140.2 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 5 9 9 2 5 13 11 6 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 12. 6. 0. -5. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##