* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 45 55 67 79 87 97 102 106 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 45 55 67 79 87 97 102 106 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 49 57 66 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 9 8 2 6 10 14 12 15 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 1 0 3 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 12 13 14 29 29 56 110 82 66 55 57 54 10 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 157 154 154 153 149 148 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 71 69 67 64 60 64 67 74 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 13 13 15 19 23 28 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 11 21 29 27 20 15 24 28 29 42 38 36 34 200 MB DIV 45 36 37 58 44 35 25 38 24 61 85 142 134 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 0 1 4 3 2 -2 -3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 782 821 871 931 1004 1046 1184 1406 1645 1899 2112 2267 2341 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.7 14.2 13.4 12.3 11.5 11.0 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 109.1 110.4 111.6 112.7 114.9 117.2 119.7 122.3 124.6 126.6 128.1 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 27 20 15 17 20 37 31 12 18 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 16. 21. 29. 32. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 25. 35. 47. 59. 67. 77. 82. 86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##