* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 47 48 52 57 65 71 75 76 77 71 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 42 47 52 56 64 70 74 76 76 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 47 48 50 55 62 71 77 79 76 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 9 5 6 2 4 6 16 33 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 258 277 294 306 242 318 343 24 213 224 238 246 255 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.1 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 141 142 143 146 146 146 140 129 125 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 139 139 139 138 136 133 131 126 116 112 108 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 8 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 51 51 54 56 58 60 63 62 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 13 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -25 -30 -30 -28 -69 -69 -60 -38 -31 -21 19 18 200 MB DIV 23 6 -7 12 18 6 31 35 73 46 20 41 48 700-850 TADV -3 3 1 -2 0 9 4 9 16 17 17 17 16 LAND (KM) 495 299 118 -1 27 155 400 610 644 505 581 646 663 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.9 21.2 23.8 26.3 28.9 31.9 35.2 37.7 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.9 65.5 67.0 68.4 70.9 73.0 74.0 73.9 72.3 69.5 64.9 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 15 19 21 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 59 8 12 49 48 37 24 6 6 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 847 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 20. 26. 30. 31. 32. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED