* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 21 20 20 22 25 29 33 36 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 21 20 20 22 23 26 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 4 8 17 20 22 16 13 11 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 0 0 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 296 226 234 221 185 200 204 210 215 203 178 165 155 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 146 146 146 148 149 151 151 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 49 46 44 47 50 54 58 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 28 25 25 27 35 41 47 59 58 59 55 200 MB DIV 21 18 22 7 -7 -16 -3 0 18 21 17 16 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1405 1441 1480 1521 1565 1679 1816 1973 2167 2375 2589 2811 3045 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 168.9 169.6 170.2 170.9 171.6 173.0 174.6 176.3 178.4 180.6 182.9 185.2 187.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 36 45 51 45 40 54 71 63 58 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##