* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 53 57 60 63 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 53 57 60 63 68 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 55 61 70 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 8 8 4 2 2 8 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 0 1 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 120 108 92 67 79 96 99 156 329 357 58 89 75 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 141 141 142 144 148 151 151 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 63 64 63 58 56 59 65 66 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 34 37 36 37 42 46 52 58 53 52 50 200 MB DIV 22 21 25 20 13 11 2 9 41 51 43 23 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -7 -6 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 750 736 747 778 834 1003 1221 1388 1620 1850 2092 2327 2587 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 153.7 155.0 156.2 157.6 158.9 161.7 164.7 167.8 171.2 174.2 177.2 179.9 182.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 23 31 22 12 15 13 24 42 38 63 71 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 43. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING