* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 69 70 72 74 73 72 66 59 53 46 39 V (KT) LAND 65 68 69 70 72 74 73 72 66 59 53 46 39 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 71 71 69 67 65 63 60 55 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 13 9 10 5 1 7 10 6 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 1 0 -2 -2 2 0 11 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 8 25 30 49 30 102 139 207 257 205 198 184 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 138 137 132 126 123 123 123 124 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 61 59 57 60 60 61 54 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 24 24 25 27 27 27 26 25 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 8 2 -7 -6 -3 1 -3 -5 -5 22 49 78 74 200 MB DIV 24 11 9 19 42 40 42 33 37 52 29 -12 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 3 3 8 13 10 LAND (KM) 1901 1952 1992 2039 2089 2206 2204 2045 1918 1791 1638 1402 1115 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.8 128.6 129.5 130.4 132.3 134.2 135.7 136.9 138.1 139.5 141.7 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 9 11 5 6 14 11 10 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 1. -6. -12. -19. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##