* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 43 54 67 79 88 94 101 105 103 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 43 54 67 79 88 94 101 105 103 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 47 56 64 71 76 79 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 17 14 11 9 11 10 8 8 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 49 51 54 52 55 69 73 26 21 348 1 53 354 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 155 155 155 152 150 150 148 145 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 76 74 73 70 69 67 69 70 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 18 22 27 32 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 5 6 3 0 7 18 27 35 33 40 41 200 MB DIV 51 61 58 38 55 62 56 83 86 86 136 155 124 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 2 2 1 -3 -3 -6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1123 1176 1234 1287 1311 1383 1493 1623 1737 1851 1919 2032 2143 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.6 12.5 13.7 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.3 115.0 116.5 118.1 119.7 121.2 123.0 125.1 127.7 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 12 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 21 12 10 12 25 33 28 28 20 10 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 31. 34. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 42. 54. 63. 69. 76. 80. 78. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##