* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 46 48 52 58 64 70 71 73 68 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 45 47 52 58 63 70 71 73 67 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 39 44 46 50 55 63 69 72 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 13 9 15 14 10 2 11 22 30 38 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 -3 -7 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 280 295 310 268 278 319 327 17 266 237 252 241 257 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.7 26.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 140 142 143 143 147 146 141 130 124 121 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 140 141 140 136 136 133 126 116 111 107 95 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 55 56 60 64 60 59 53 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 13 13 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -29 -23 -27 -44 -95 -91 -54 -64 -38 -31 15 19 200 MB DIV 2 -5 17 16 9 18 30 72 39 63 25 56 22 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -3 -2 8 7 8 16 9 9 -18 9 LAND (KM) 301 135 34 0 30 289 491 596 519 554 696 625 596 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.9 20.0 22.5 25.2 28.2 31.3 34.1 36.4 38.7 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 65.7 67.3 68.8 70.2 72.5 74.1 74.2 72.8 70.1 66.1 61.6 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 17 16 15 16 17 19 20 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 41 60 54 6 48 52 69 29 9 4 5 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 1. 0. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 26. 28. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED