* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 24 25 28 28 30 32 36 40 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 24 25 28 28 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 8 13 18 26 25 18 13 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 1 1 0 -3 -6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 246 244 252 225 207 211 211 230 229 222 180 170 154 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 146 146 147 148 149 149 150 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 51 49 48 46 49 51 54 57 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 13 18 21 23 22 29 34 44 58 68 65 200 MB DIV 12 8 10 5 -9 0 19 0 0 9 18 32 28 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 1449 1490 1534 1581 1630 1738 1877 2045 2216 2431 2658 2904 3173 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 170.0 170.7 171.4 172.1 172.8 174.2 175.8 177.6 179.5 181.7 184.0 186.5 189.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 42 50 51 46 39 46 55 45 44 43 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 12. 16. 20. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##