* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 45 46 46 45 45 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 45 46 46 45 45 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 39 41 41 41 42 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 6 6 1 3 10 16 16 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 127 124 53 64 83 322 215 231 245 246 241 283 266 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 140 141 144 147 148 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 59 60 57 56 56 60 62 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 42 41 39 35 38 32 35 33 35 31 31 200 MB DIV 13 32 31 32 15 -15 38 35 59 38 40 20 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 -3 -4 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 731 716 724 755 810 993 1132 1294 1494 1712 1945 2225 2523 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.7 156.9 158.3 159.6 162.6 165.6 168.7 171.7 174.5 177.2 180.2 183.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 31 27 14 8 11 16 24 44 34 51 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 21. 21. 20. 21. 24. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##