* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 69 64 59 53 44 39 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 69 64 59 53 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 73 73 72 69 67 65 63 60 54 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 14 9 10 9 5 2 7 3 9 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 5 9 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 21 25 46 48 74 42 273 249 262 216 162 177 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 136 131 125 124 125 125 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 61 60 56 56 56 57 58 52 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 28 28 27 26 27 26 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -9 -3 4 2 5 -1 11 39 68 93 87 200 MB DIV 9 3 23 37 31 55 40 49 74 50 11 -21 7 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 1 2 5 13 18 9 LAND (KM) 1967 2003 2043 2100 2161 2296 2134 1975 1855 1697 1524 1281 969 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.7 129.5 130.4 131.3 133.2 134.9 136.4 137.6 139.1 140.7 143.0 146.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 7 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 10 13 8 1 7 5 10 8 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -6. -11. -17. -26. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##