* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 41 43 46 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 41 43 46 48 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 31 32 33 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 8 6 5 2 8 2 3 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 1 0 -4 -3 -3 1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 68 86 95 108 102 93 113 154 175 190 116 56 74 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 138 135 136 138 137 136 138 139 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 60 60 54 50 48 49 51 54 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 29 36 47 47 37 34 34 37 44 44 48 200 MB DIV 43 36 36 47 63 10 5 9 26 37 47 30 35 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 3 0 0 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1779 1655 1534 1395 1259 986 715 526 507 658 858 1039 1238 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.6 14.5 14.4 13.9 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.7 142.9 144.3 145.7 148.5 151.5 154.4 157.2 159.8 162.3 164.8 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 20 16 13 10 8 5 20 12 8 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 32. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##