* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 64 77 86 93 99 104 104 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 64 77 86 93 99 104 104 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 57 65 73 79 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 12 11 11 11 9 6 8 14 16 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 65 67 64 62 65 56 80 53 46 42 59 66 36 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 156 153 152 148 148 146 149 146 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 76 74 73 71 67 68 68 70 68 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 18 21 25 28 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 0 -6 -12 -7 1 6 18 24 42 57 66 200 MB DIV 62 55 50 48 36 17 67 41 32 62 112 148 117 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 -1 -4 -4 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 1149 1218 1249 1295 1346 1438 1541 1663 1807 1971 2170 2345 2115 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 8 7 8 9 11 13 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 12 20 31 36 32 35 14 9 15 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 28. 39. 52. 61. 68. 74. 79. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##