* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 45 47 49 52 59 63 67 70 71 66 V (KT) LAND 45 44 40 44 45 47 51 57 61 65 69 70 64 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 40 44 45 47 51 56 63 67 70 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 18 12 18 17 14 12 8 12 20 27 37 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -4 -4 -6 -2 -3 -4 -3 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 302 314 296 297 302 320 338 300 290 259 250 247 262 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.6 26.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 142 143 145 147 146 138 127 123 122 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 139 138 136 135 133 124 111 108 108 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 54 55 60 62 65 67 65 64 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -25 -28 -49 -79 -85 -87 -48 -51 -41 -5 -6 -17 200 MB DIV -13 6 17 18 17 34 41 55 33 55 59 51 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 -2 5 5 13 11 14 3 21 23 38 LAND (KM) 144 42 -25 15 144 357 581 682 539 666 711 662 655 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.9 21.1 23.5 26.1 29.2 32.3 34.9 36.6 38.7 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 67.4 68.8 70.1 71.3 73.3 74.3 73.5 71.4 68.6 65.4 60.8 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 14 14 17 18 17 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 62 56 70 34 48 48 54 22 5 8 14 14 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)