* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 26 29 34 38 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 13 16 20 25 19 17 13 17 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 0 1 -5 -7 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 230 247 214 197 199 195 205 224 216 191 162 138 128 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 146 148 149 151 151 151 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 51 48 47 47 49 52 56 60 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 15 18 18 27 30 35 47 66 80 82 89 200 MB DIV 4 15 11 -10 -10 5 6 14 4 27 25 8 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 2 4 3 6 LAND (KM) 1504 1546 1591 1645 1702 1832 1985 2171 2386 2623 2849 3106 3364 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 170.5 171.2 171.9 172.7 173.4 174.9 176.6 178.6 180.8 183.2 185.5 188.0 190.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 48 45 40 42 59 71 68 68 66 68 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##