* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 51 56 61 62 64 70 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 51 56 61 62 64 70 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 57 62 66 72 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 9 7 6 7 4 5 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 157 357 38 85 119 119 148 172 197 359 142 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 142 142 143 144 148 149 150 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 62 61 59 59 60 64 64 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 45 47 45 47 47 44 43 42 41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 32 26 15 7 -3 6 49 62 67 62 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 757 780 820 866 927 1091 1281 1401 1520 1673 1846 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 31 26 19 14 22 25 27 29 44 44 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 21. 26. 31. 32. 34. 40. 42. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##