* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 71 72 71 68 67 62 59 52 46 41 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 71 72 71 68 67 62 59 52 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 72 72 71 70 68 67 64 61 56 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 10 12 7 7 4 1 5 3 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 7 0 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 26 24 29 54 55 94 70 257 290 178 189 167 193 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 134 130 126 127 128 128 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 61 62 61 62 63 67 63 59 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -5 -4 -2 -5 -8 -2 21 36 67 73 52 200 MB DIV -5 20 51 29 27 34 52 38 31 29 -8 -30 1 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 2 7 11 6 3 LAND (KM) 2023 2074 2127 2183 2242 2237 2066 1900 1740 1555 1351 1061 720 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.7 130.5 131.4 132.3 134.0 135.6 137.2 138.8 140.6 142.5 145.3 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 11 8 7 2 2 1 1 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -8. -11. -18. -24. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##