* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 08/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 39 44 44 44 46 50 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 39 44 44 44 46 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 35 35 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 4 4 2 5 5 5 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 3 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 88 93 99 126 107 73 102 169 220 276 19 53 59 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 136 133 136 138 136 137 138 140 144 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 58 57 51 47 46 47 48 48 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 36 46 48 37 33 25 31 33 34 42 48 200 MB DIV 28 28 38 54 41 25 15 12 34 32 0 14 27 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1691 1560 1430 1287 1149 873 633 478 537 729 949 1141 1374 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.2 13.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 141.1 142.4 143.7 145.2 146.6 149.5 152.4 155.4 158.1 160.9 163.6 166.2 168.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 17 12 14 7 5 10 18 12 16 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 24. 24. 24. 26. 30. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 08/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 08/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##