* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 53 57 61 68 70 75 74 67 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 52 56 60 67 69 74 73 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 46 47 49 52 57 62 67 71 73 71 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 22 20 16 15 11 13 12 21 33 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -5 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 321 307 305 312 322 334 345 325 270 255 246 253 260 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.0 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 143 147 146 142 129 125 119 109 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 138 135 136 133 128 115 111 105 96 75 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 58 57 60 63 62 63 59 62 65 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 7 7 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -35 -50 -81 -93 -99 -58 -66 -29 -25 5 11 9 200 MB DIV 13 23 14 6 25 28 67 21 48 33 68 44 34 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 3 1 2 12 7 14 -9 -7 10 35 LAND (KM) 47 1 40 166 288 473 613 542 549 660 603 560 390 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.5 25.0 28.1 31.1 34.0 36.5 38.6 40.9 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.0 70.3 71.5 72.7 74.0 74.0 72.7 70.2 66.7 62.4 57.6 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 59 10 54 27 54 71 32 9 7 10 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -4. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 23. 25. 30. 29. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)