* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 14 17 18 25 29 22 17 15 12 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 244 228 214 218 223 217 233 235 236 205 204 150 136 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 146 148 148 149 150 150 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 51 50 46 46 46 46 46 52 58 61 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 23 19 21 24 16 20 33 59 73 83 83 200 MB DIV 11 13 0 -15 4 4 -7 3 11 3 15 9 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 4 3 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 1459 1504 1550 1604 1659 1781 1928 2090 2304 2517 2761 3016 3279 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 170.5 171.2 171.9 172.7 173.4 174.9 176.6 178.4 180.6 182.8 185.2 187.7 190.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 45 43 39 39 52 55 47 45 45 45 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -9. -5. -1. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##