* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 40 44 44 44 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 40 44 44 44 46 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 36 38 38 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 11 12 11 5 4 4 3 4 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 3 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 45 61 62 67 57 51 29 217 273 239 353 37 106 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 138 137 138 141 140 139 139 141 143 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 63 60 55 52 53 54 56 56 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 49 51 47 36 23 20 21 10 -2 -13 -11 200 MB DIV 15 28 47 38 0 26 1 34 35 40 43 39 15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1584 1441 1303 1160 1023 752 580 606 776 935 1093 1279 1505 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 144.2 145.7 147.2 148.7 151.8 155.1 158.3 161.3 164.3 167.1 169.6 171.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 14 12 7 14 17 12 19 23 28 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 24. 24. 24. 26. 29. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##