* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 53 62 71 81 86 90 95 97 97 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 53 62 71 81 86 90 95 97 97 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 58 69 83 95 105 110 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 12 8 9 4 4 5 12 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -7 -6 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 43 73 86 75 104 87 67 49 71 26 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 147 148 148 151 151 151 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 64 64 65 63 67 70 73 71 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 51 61 74 84 73 72 65 56 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 12 -6 -10 -7 20 30 95 75 81 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 965 1029 1111 1202 1360 1469 1571 1723 1902 2071 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.9 12.9 14.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.1 158.3 159.4 160.6 161.8 164.0 166.3 169.1 172.1 175.0 177.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 12 11 11 13 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 30 27 32 41 47 34 29 38 43 68 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 27. 36. 46. 51. 55. 60. 62. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##