* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 87 88 86 82 78 71 65 58 48 40 35 V (KT) LAND 85 87 87 88 86 82 78 71 65 58 48 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 89 88 86 81 77 73 68 61 55 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 14 9 6 7 1 5 7 10 10 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 6 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 24 18 38 64 36 90 307 230 258 191 190 186 191 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 138 136 132 128 128 127 128 129 127 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 62 61 61 63 65 64 60 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 26 27 27 26 25 24 25 24 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -8 -7 -1 -3 -4 20 34 60 73 65 41 200 MB DIV 14 42 18 4 12 34 25 40 22 27 -38 -27 -26 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 0 2 6 10 12 5 6 LAND (KM) 2074 2131 2191 2253 2316 2133 1957 1802 1647 1443 1177 902 609 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 133.3 135.0 136.7 138.2 139.7 141.7 144.3 147.0 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 8 7 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -27. -37. -45. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##