* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 41 43 48 54 60 65 70 72 68 59 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 45 47 52 58 64 69 74 76 72 63 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 42 42 44 47 51 56 60 64 64 60 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 18 12 14 16 13 13 19 34 44 50 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -5 0 4 2 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 305 311 324 329 330 340 322 283 245 243 244 252 267 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.5 22.9 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 147 147 143 135 129 124 123 96 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 138 138 135 129 121 114 109 108 86 69 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 52 56 58 57 61 60 64 66 63 63 63 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 14 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -65 -84 -77 -86 -46 -45 -19 8 26 39 33 200 MB DIV 13 8 5 31 48 37 68 21 61 79 42 24 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 6 1 9 16 13 4 18 14 20 25 LAND (KM) 0 43 167 300 371 557 620 468 614 616 583 523 268 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 26.6 29.7 32.7 35.4 37.7 39.6 42.1 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 70.5 71.8 72.8 73.8 74.5 73.8 72.0 69.1 65.4 60.8 55.8 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 14 16 17 18 20 21 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 66 54 37 52 51 44 17 6 13 2 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 4. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 32. 28. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED