* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 27 27 26 26 25 28 29 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 27 27 26 26 25 28 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 22 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 3 4 10 8 13 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 37 49 47 37 360 271 264 269 263 291 267 233 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 134 135 136 135 136 138 140 143 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 58 56 54 51 48 51 51 53 51 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 9 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 48 40 29 24 10 13 3 6 14 24 27 200 MB DIV 13 29 25 10 36 3 26 36 32 15 52 34 29 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 1 -4 -3 -6 -3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1380 1231 1086 934 789 522 394 499 660 757 936 1160 1400 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.0 16.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.7 147.1 148.6 150.1 153.2 156.2 159.1 161.8 164.5 167.0 169.4 171.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 8 3 3 7 17 8 10 24 29 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 8. 9. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##