* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 57 68 79 86 91 94 97 98 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 57 68 79 86 91 94 97 98 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 46 58 74 89 100 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 11 11 6 7 9 13 10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 74 71 59 62 80 69 57 51 65 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 149 151 152 153 153 153 152 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 66 66 67 68 73 74 75 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 64 75 85 91 94 89 85 79 71 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 4 -13 -21 7 28 55 101 90 82 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1024 1097 1180 1264 1355 1523 1635 1732 1879 2048 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.7 9.3 10.1 11.0 12.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.1 159.3 160.5 161.7 162.8 165.1 167.6 170.3 173.2 176.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 37 45 52 53 42 35 34 46 51 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 27. 38. 49. 56. 61. 64. 67. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##