* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 102 102 101 95 86 75 65 56 47 40 35 V (KT) LAND 95 100 102 102 101 95 86 75 65 56 47 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 95 101 102 100 97 89 82 75 67 60 54 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 5 2 3 3 10 11 6 16 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 3 2 1 -1 3 3 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 18 46 45 54 68 334 212 255 218 207 178 201 215 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 134 130 128 127 128 129 127 123 123 126 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 59 58 60 62 60 56 49 45 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 -14 -7 -7 -2 8 36 55 80 85 70 53 200 MB DIV 29 23 13 31 40 45 68 23 9 -30 -33 -23 6 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -6 -6 -2 1 3 7 11 15 3 5 LAND (KM) 2143 2207 2273 2299 2191 2001 1853 1702 1524 1284 983 667 362 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.6 132.5 133.5 134.5 136.3 137.7 139.2 140.9 143.2 146.0 149.0 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 10 12 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 6 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 6. 0. -9. -20. -30. -39. -48. -55. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##