* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 43 55 67 76 82 87 91 89 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 43 55 67 76 82 87 91 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 31 35 40 44 47 51 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 10 9 13 10 9 6 3 5 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 0 3 -2 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 31 37 44 47 35 21 359 12 38 77 354 28 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 156 157 154 151 150 146 146 147 139 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 66 66 65 65 68 71 73 72 71 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 17 21 24 27 30 31 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 7 13 15 21 30 36 36 29 31 38 28 200 MB DIV 73 44 37 25 30 51 64 72 122 101 124 90 83 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 5 2 2 1 -1 -6 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1101 1146 1190 1262 1338 1475 1625 1775 1939 2113 2252 2276 1929 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 9 11 13 13 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 16 25 33 31 16 7 8 15 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 29. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 18. 30. 42. 51. 57. 62. 66. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##