* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 22 24 25 32 26 24 21 21 16 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 4 2 0 -5 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 236 238 237 237 244 236 233 221 234 221 227 184 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 145 147 148 148 147 147 147 146 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 43 43 47 51 56 59 62 61 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 31 28 21 11 14 29 39 55 54 63 94 200 MB DIV -22 0 5 10 7 6 24 17 32 23 35 70 73 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -5 -5 -8 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1403 1450 1499 1552 1608 1749 1899 2073 2279 2525 2787 3081 3378 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.6 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 170.5 171.2 171.9 172.7 173.4 175.1 176.9 178.8 181.0 183.5 186.1 188.9 191.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 37 35 32 35 53 41 31 31 31 31 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -16. -13. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##