* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 26 28 28 28 28 27 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 26 28 28 28 28 27 26 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 6 6 3 5 9 13 13 19 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -1 1 2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 39 37 42 30 50 306 249 250 263 275 274 275 265 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 137 139 139 137 138 139 143 146 146 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 55 54 51 52 54 54 53 54 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 38 27 28 25 24 28 24 7 0 -5 -1 200 MB DIV 22 38 36 47 15 18 46 54 36 24 27 23 36 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 2 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1222 1058 903 757 616 471 584 756 892 1108 1327 1557 1731 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.3 18.6 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 145.8 147.5 149.2 151.0 152.7 156.2 159.6 162.9 166.1 169.2 171.9 174.3 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 7 4 5 14 18 7 16 33 18 29 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##