* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 50 60 70 80 88 91 95 97 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 50 60 70 80 88 91 95 97 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 32 37 47 59 73 87 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 11 9 4 5 6 9 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -6 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 91 81 86 101 75 63 73 72 43 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 149 149 149 150 151 151 151 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 69 71 75 77 76 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 13 15 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 88 93 95 88 80 69 62 63 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -8 -15 3 28 40 88 95 95 50 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1061 1143 1237 1313 1395 1523 1580 1675 1812 1994 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.8 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.9 160.3 161.6 162.8 164.0 166.4 168.7 171.1 173.6 176.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 40 48 50 48 35 29 32 39 58 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 58. 61. 65. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##