* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 97 96 95 90 83 74 65 55 48 41 38 V (KT) LAND 95 97 97 96 95 90 83 74 65 55 48 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 96 94 91 85 79 73 66 59 53 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 4 1 2 7 8 13 8 15 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 1 -4 0 4 0 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 47 63 55 83 182 227 209 227 203 178 171 190 184 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 132 130 129 129 128 129 126 123 125 127 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 59 59 61 55 52 46 41 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -15 -12 -6 -1 30 59 78 90 78 58 46 200 MB DIV 28 24 6 6 25 43 47 11 11 -26 -13 -9 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -6 -7 -4 0 1 6 10 13 11 8 3 LAND (KM) 2198 2272 2313 2212 2110 1932 1787 1620 1412 1149 827 500 202 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.4 133.4 134.4 135.3 137.0 138.4 140.0 142.0 144.5 147.5 150.6 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 7 7 9 11 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 3 3 4 3 1 3 1 1 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -21. -30. -40. -47. -54. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##