* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 34 45 56 68 75 80 84 88 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 34 45 56 68 75 80 84 88 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 47 50 53 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 10 12 13 8 8 6 7 8 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -2 1 2 -1 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 37 48 67 59 44 18 359 23 19 42 357 28 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 156 152 149 146 143 146 140 132 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 65 63 64 65 67 71 70 71 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 17 19 23 25 28 29 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 17 18 22 31 42 41 37 29 37 33 36 200 MB DIV 46 38 27 30 53 45 73 71 106 129 80 66 64 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 4 2 4 1 -2 -5 -3 -7 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 1063 1123 1189 1267 1349 1508 1685 1839 1992 2145 2326 2110 1827 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 22 30 32 26 7 6 18 7 4 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 17. 19. 22. 25. 30. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 20. 31. 43. 50. 55. 59. 63. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##